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Sunday, April 1, 2012

2012 Elections Predictions

Here's how I think the 2012 elections shape up 7 months out.

United States Presidency:

Mitt Romney/Rick Perry(337 EV's)(50.3%)-AL, AK, AZ, AR, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MI, MS, MO, MT, NE, NH, NC, ND, NV, OH, OK, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY
Barack Obama/Joe Biden(179 EV's)(44.5%)-CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA
Gary Johnson/Jesse Ventura(26 EV's)(5.1%)-ME, MN, NM, OR

United States Senate:

Arizona: Jeff Flake(R) 59-41 over Richard Carmona(D). GOP HOLD.
California: Dianne Feinstein(D) 57-43 over Dirk Konopik(R). DEM HOLD.
Connecticut: Chris Murphy(D) 53-47 over Chris Shays(R). DEM GAIN.
Delaware: Tom Carper(D) 62-38 over Kevin Wade(R). DEM HOLD.
Florida: Cornelius Mack(R) 52-48 over Bill Nelson(D). GOP GAIN.
Hawaii: Ed Case(D) 55-45 over Linda Lingle(R). DEM HOLD.
Indiana: Richard Mourdock(R) 58-42 over Joe Donnelly. GOP HOLD.
Maine: Charlie Summers(R) 39-37-24 over Angus King(I) and Matt Dunlap(D). GOP HOLD.
Maryland: Ben Cardin(D) 60-40 over Dan Bongino(R). DEM HOLD.
Massachusetts: Scott Brown(R) 53-47 over Elizabeth Warren(D). GOP HOLD.
Michigan: Pete Hoekstra(R) 54-46 over Debbie Stabenow(D). GOP GAIN.
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar(D) 55-45 over Dan Severson(R). DEM HOLD.
Mississippi: Roger Wicker(R) 68-32 over Albert N. Gore Jr.(D) GOP HOLD.
Missouri: Sarah Steelman(R) 56-44 over Claire McCaskill(D). GOP GAIN.
Nebraska: Don Stenberg(R) 71-29 over Bob Kerrey(D). GOP GAIN.
Nevada: Dean Heller(R) 53-46 over Shelley Berkeley(D). GOP HOLD.
New Jersey: Bob Menendez(D) 51-47 over Joe Kyrillos(R). DEM HOLD.
New Mexico: Heather Wilson(R) 54-45 over Martin Heinrich(D). GOP GAIN.
North Dakota: Rick Berg(R) 52-47 over Heidi Heitkamp(D). GOP GAIN.
Ohio: Josh Mandel(R) 52-48 over Sherrod Brown(D). GOP GAIN.
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr.(D) 51-46 over Tom Smith(R). DEM HOLD.
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse(D) 69-31 over Barry Hinckley(R). DEM HOLD.
Tennessee: Bob Corker(R) 72-28 over Grover Mullins Jr.(D). GOP HOLD.
Texas: David Dewhurst(R) 64-36 over Paul Sadler(D). GOP HOLD.
Utah: Orrin Hatch(R) 61-39 over Pete Ashdown(D). GOP HOLD.
Vermont: Bernie Sanders(I/D) 70-30 over John MacGovern(R). INDY/DEM HOLD.
Virginia: George Allen(R) 52-48 over Tim Kaine(D). GOP GAIN.
Washington: Maria Cantwell(D) 55-44 over Michael Baumgartner(R). DEM HOLD.
West Virginia: Joe Manchin(D) 55-43 over John Raese(R). DEM HOLD.
Wisconsin: Mark Neumann(R) 51-48 over Tammy Baldwin(D). GOP GAIN.
Wyoming: John Barrasso(R) runs unopposed. GOP HOLD.

State Governorships:

Delaware: Jack Markell(D) 65-35 over Jeff Cragg(R). DEM HOLD.
Indiana: Mike Pence(R) 59-41 over John Gregg(D). GOP HOLD.
Missouri: Jay Nixon(D) 57-43 over Dave Spence(R). DEM HOLD.
Montana: Rick Hill(R) 55-45 over Steve Bullock(D). GOP GAIN.
New Hampshire: Ovide LaMontagne(R) 56-44 over Maggie Hassan(D). GOP GAIN.
North Carolina: Pat McCrory(R) 58-42 over Walter Dalton(D). GOP GAIN.
North Dakota: Jack Dalrymphle(R) 60-40 over Ryan Taylor(D). GOP HOLD.
Utah: Gary Herbert(R) 77-23 over Peter Cooke(D). GOP HOLD.
Vermont: Peter Shumlin(D) 56-44 over Randy Brock(R). DEM HOLD.
Washington: Rob McKenna(R) 55-45 over Jay Inslee(D). GOP GAIN.
West Virginia: Bill Maloney(R) 51-47 over Earl Tomblin(D). GOP GAIN.

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